Final Marquette Law School Poll Has Gubernatorial Candidates Tied

Oct 31, 2018

If the numbers from the latest Marquette University Law School Poll are right, Republican Gov. Scott Walker and his Democratic challenger Tony Evers are tied. Each has 47 percent of the vote amongst the 1,154 likely voters polled by phone Oct. 24-28. 

“It’s not just 47 percent-47 percent, it’s exactly the same number of respondents picking Evers as Walker. Do I need to say that’s inside the margin of error? It obviously is,” says Charles Franklin, the poll director.

The margin of error for likely voters is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points. What will make a difference next Tuesday isn’t the number of people who show up to vote, Franklin says, but who shows up.

“I think the one thing I can guarantee is that it won’t be exactly the same number of votes for each candidate. But the real question is which way does it tilt off of this balance?” he says.

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Franklin says all this year, Democrats have been more enthusiastic than Republicans when it comes to voting, but anything could change between now and Tuesday. He urges everyone to vote.

“Polls don’t vote, it’s up to the people to vote. We are a week away, the data is eight days away. Things can change. 2016 you saw a difference between our final poll and the outcome. It’s not in my hands, it’s in yours and everyone else’s hands,” Franklin says.

When it comes to the race for U.S. Senate, Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin leads Republican Leah Vukmir by 11 percentage points. And in the race for attorney general, incumbent Brad Schimel leads Democrat Josh Kaul by 2 percentage points, which is within the margin of error.

Election Day is Nov. 6.