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Gov. Evers and Sen. Johnson in tight races, Marquette poll finds

The Marquette poll
Victor Moussa
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Adobe Stock
The new Marquette poll shows Republican voters are more enthusiastic about casting a ballot this year.

The Marquette Law School poll released Wednesday shows a tight Republican primary race for Wisconsin governor between candidates Tim Michels and Rebecca Kleefisch, and Democratic Gov. Tony Evers slightly ahead of the Republicans. For the U.S. Senate race, Mandela Barnes has a slight lead over Alex Lasry in the Democratic primary, and Republican Sen. Ron Johnson is about even with each of the top Democrats.

The survey of 803 registered voters was conducted June 14-20, 2022. The poll's margin of error is +/- 4.3 percentage points, and about plus or minus six percentage points for primary election voters.

Race for Wisconsin governor

A new Marquette Law School poll shows the Republican primary for Wisconsin governor is very close between candidates Tim Michels and Rebecca Kleefisch, with GOP contenders Kevin Nicholson and Tim Ramthun 15 to 20 percentage points behind. The poll also shows a potentially close contest between the Republican nominee and Democratic incumbent Tony Evers in November.

It's the first Marquette poll to include Michels, a business owner who didn't get into the race until late April, but has since been endorsed by former President Donald Trump.

Charl
Chuck Quirmbach
/
WUWM
Director of the Marquette Law School Poll, Charles Franklin, shares poll results.

Marquette pollster Charles Franklin says there are probably a couple reasons why Michels is now basically tied with former Wisconsin Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch at just over 25 percentage points.

"One is, he steps in and fills some kind of void in the Republican primary. If you look at that nearly 50% of undecided now down to a third. There were certainly people who came on board. And, I don't think we want to discount a multi-million dollar advertising campaign that let someone step in for a whole lot of ads that really do, move voters. Again, I come back to what people learn between now and August 9 about each of the candidates that may tilt Republican voters one way or another," he says.

About one-third of those Republican voters say they are still undecided.

Evers is unopposed in the Democratic primary. So, the Marquette poll also looked at potential matchups between the incumbent and the four main Republican contenders after the August 9 primary. The results show Evers with slight leads over Kleefisch, Michels and Nicholson and a large lead over Ramthun.

Franklin says right now Evers is holding on to almost all Democrats, and is doing slightly better with independents. But the pollster says one concern for Evers is that Republicans appear to be more enthusiastic about voting this year, and that could affect turnout.

"So, if you had only very enthusiastic voters at this point that would flip this from a small Evers advantage to an even smaller Kleefisch advantage," he points out.

Franklin also says Michels and Nicholson could also narrowly defeat Evers in a low turnout general election.

Another potential downside for the governor — the Marquette Poll shows just 40% of respondents approve of the job Democratic President Joe Biden is doing, with 57% disapproval. Biden is not scheduled to be at the state Democratic convention this weekend in La Crosse.

Race for U.S. Senate

What Marquette poll found for the U.S. Senate race.

The new poll from Marquette University also shows Wisconsin Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes with a slight lead over Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate. Barnes is at 25 percentage points; Lasry is at 21.

Other Senate contenders, State Treasurer Sarah Godlewski and Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson, are 16 to 18 percentage points behind Barnes.

The poll also shows Barnes, Godlewski or Nelson would narrowly defeat incumbent Republican Sen. Ron Johnson in November, with Johnson slightly ahead of Lasry in a hypothetical matchup.

Pollster Charles Franklin says even though Barnes and Lasry are well ahead of Godlewski and Nelson, it doesn't mean the Democratic Senate primary is now a two-person race.

"Certainly, Barnes and Lasry have been pretty close, with a little bit of an advantage to Barnes, and that's been consistent. But, you see Godlewski rising a bit. But on the Democratic side, there's still a third of the people without their minds made up. And, if you look at the matchups with Johnson, three of the Democratic candidates have a claim of doing pretty well, and Lasry's only a few points behind Johnson. So, the closeness of the Johnson races gives each of those candidates something to say that they have a chance of being a successful competitor," he says.

But Franklin says the new poll also shows Republican voters are more enthusiastic about casting a ballot this year. He says if the Democrats don't catch up on that factor, enthusiasm could make a difference in November.

"The smaller the electorate, the better Republicans do. Enough so, that in a sufficiently low turnout race, if the election were held today, you would move from a very small Democratic advantage to a very small Republican advantage. So that's I think [this is] a good demonstration that turnout matters."

Franklin says the next Marquette poll on the Wisconsin contests will be released after the August 9 primary election. It's possible other polls will come out before the primary, and that some of the candidates will do their own voter surveys.

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