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The Recession Predictor, Still Predictive?

Yield Curve
NPR

The yield curve has a sterling record as a recession predictor. Since 1970, every time the yield curve has inverted — in other words, every time long-term interest rates have fallen below short-term interest rates — the economy has slipped into recession within about a year.

We first checked in on the yield curve in January, after a period of notable flattening. In the time since, it's continued to flatten even more. It has not yet inverted, though it keeps inching closer.

Meanwhile, policymakers and economists everywhere are debating whether or not the yield curve remains as powerfully predictive as it once was.

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Stacey Vanek Smith is the co-host of NPR's The Indicator from Planet Money. She's also a correspondent for Planet Money, where she covers business and economics. In this role, Smith has followed economic stories down the muddy back roads of Oklahoma to buy 100 barrels of oil; she's traveled to Pune, India, to track down the man who pitched the country's dramatic currency devaluation to the prime minister; and she's spoken with a North Korean woman who made a small fortune smuggling artificial sweetener in from China.
Cardiff Garcia is a co-host of NPR's The Indicator from Planet Money podcast, along with Stacey Vanek Smith. He joined NPR in November 2017.