MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
We wanted to spend a few more minutes on Russia's tactics, so we're going to turn now to Nina Khrushcheva. She is a professor of international affairs at the New School in New York and the great-granddaughter of former Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev. Professor, thank you so much for joining us.
NINA KHRUSHCHEVA: Thank you. Good morning.
MARTIN: How would you characterize Russia's strategy overall?
KHRUSHCHEVA: Russia thinks - Putin thinks he's winning the war and, therefore, the end of the war, if it does come, is going to be on his terms. Ukraine is not joining NATO ever. Ukraine is giving up at least two regions, which is Donbas and Luhansk, but also two others, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. Russian language is reinstated in Ukraine. And so he thinks he can, as somebody who pushes forward with his troops, can demand this kind of conditions to end the war.
MARTIN: As we just heard, Russia has accused Ukraine of attacking Putin's residence. Ukraine's president denies carrying out the attack. Still, Russia's foreign minister says this changes Russia's negotiating position. How do you read that?
KHRUSHCHEVA: Well, the Ukrainians probably did attack. Actually, we do know they attacked the region, and Putin was in the region. Russians do exaggerate a tremendous amount. So now they say, well, we know for sure it was an attack on Putin, an attack on the residents, and we are going to pay back. The demands were maximalist to start with and now it's going to be even more demand. I mentioned the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. Before Putin said he was sort of willing to stand where the Russian troops are standing, there's still about 20% of even more territory in these regions still belongs to Ukraine. And I think now he's going to probably want them all.
MARTIN: I mean, the Russians have consistently attacked civilian positions - schools, hospitals, you know, sensitive sites and so forth. So what is this? Are they claiming that this was an assassination attempt or what is it that they're arguing here?
KHRUSHCHEVA: Well, they're not actually - it's - they're not claiming assassination. And so now they're saying, well, they made an attack where the nuclear decisions are being made and that is very important. And so for them, it's an escalation to end the conflict. So you need to escalate to make sure that Volodymyr Zelenskyy has even less of a maneuver positions. And so then if he does have he cannot maneuver anymore, then the Russians can demand more.
So I think that's part of this, is sort of Zelenskyy is now against Putin. Also Volodymyr Zelenskyy did wish Putin's death on the 25th for the address - for Christmas address. And so now the Russians are playing off that as well.
MARTIN: You have repeatedly shared - as have other analysts - that Russia has always maintained, at least under Putin, this maximalist position, this maximalist sort of negotiating strategy. Is there anything that you could see that would cause them to rethink that?
KHRUSHCHEVA: I don't see that. I mean, unless there is a total war in Europe, unless the Europeans are sending boots on the ground, unless, say, Congress, say there was midterm elections, Trump is no longer a dominating figure because Congress belongs to the Democrats. And that's actually, I think, what Volodymyr Zelenskyy is looking for, kind of also stalling in a way, waiting for that to happen so there would be tomahawks sent to Ukraine and then sent to Russia. I don't think so because what we do know of Putin and that what analysts or many analysts are saying, is that to pressure, he responds with more pressure. So saying we're going to force Putin to negotiation position is actually fool's error (ph) because the more you force him, the more he's going to take time to fight back because for him, it's an existential battle now between Russia and the West.
MARTIN: But it's an existential battle on the Ukrainian side as well, isn't it?
KHRUSHCHEVA: Oh, absolutely. It's much more existential on the Ukrainian side, but Russia is a stronger part of the battle because Ukraine cannot fight on its own. Russia essentially fights on its own. And so we cannot really claim parity here, because that's - and that's what Putin is saying. We're fighting and we're going to fight to the death. Can you fight to the death, Ukraine? You're going to collapse first before you die.
MARTIN: So before we let you go, I think you have said, or you've suggested here and elsewhere, that Russia is - even though this is a grinding war with severe casualties on both sides, severe costs to both sides - that Russia is winning militarily. What about diplomatically?
KHRUSHCHEVA: Russia is not winning diplomatically, but it's also whom you ask because all these ideas that Russia is going to be a pariah and the countries - many countries are not going to talk to it, of course, they do. I mean, we just heard from Narendra Modi in India that he's very concerned about this attack, whether it's proven or not, but he's very concerned.
So Russia is not an isolated country, something that in 2022, when the war began, that was an expectation. And, therefore, it depends on who diplomacy is directed to. In Europe, in the West, Russia is diplomatically a pariah. Elsewhere, not so much. And so, Russia does have the time to expand its influence, even if it is very hurt by the war. But Putin doesn't care. As long as he's alive, he can fight this war. He will fight this war.
MARTIN: Nina Khrushcheva is a professor of international affairs at the New School and, as we mentioned, a long-time analyst of Russia. Professor Khrushcheva, thank you so much for sharing these insights with us once again.
KHRUSHCHEVA: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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