A new Marquette University poll shows that in the Wisconsin U.S. Senate race, Republican incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson has opened a six percentage point lead over Democratic challenger Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes.
The poll is of 652 likely voters, quizzed last week and Sunday. The survey's margin of error is plus or minus 4.8 percentage points.
Johnson led Barnes by one point in last month's Marquette poll. Barnes led in August. Pollster Charles Franklin said Johnson appears to be continuing his gains among people who say they are political independents.
"In August, Barnes had a 15 point advantage with independents. Then, in September, it was Johnson by two points with independents, and this month, it's six points for independents for Johnson advantage," Franklin said Wednesday.
>> Marquette poll: Wisconsin governor's race a toss-up
While pollsters prefer to focus on likely voters, since the individuals say they are more determined to cast a ballot, the Marquette poll also reports that when you look at just the broader category of registered voters, the Johnson-Barnes race is a tie.
So, Franklin said turnout will be key for November. Franklin, a political scientist, said the way a campaign reaches out is important.
"Personal influence remains the gold standard for people to use. If you get a call from a friend encouraging you to vote, that's worth 10,000 robocalls (automated calls) to your number. Door knocks are still a form of personal contact. But a door knock from a stranger is not as effective as a call or a visit or a text from a friend of yours. And so, we are seeing the campaigns on both sides trying to move to campaign contacts with more of those personal relationships. It's easy to say and it's hard to engineer," Franklin said.
Some high-profile people are also going to bat for Barnes. First Lady Jill Biden briefly met with him during one of her stops in Milwaukee Wednesday.
Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin is also doing some events for the lieutenant governor, as his campaign tries to turn more simply registered voters into actual voters.
Wisconsin's midterm elections are Tuesday, November 8, 2022. If you have a question about voting or the races, submit it below.
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