Eight candidates took the stage in Milwaukee last night for the first Republican presidential primary debate. Donald Trump, the party’s frontrunner, did not join them.
Wisconsin is a key state for both Republicans and Democrats in the 2024 election. According to strategists, winning Wisconsin could mean a path to the White House for either party.
Both parties are strategizing on how to win the Badger State in 2024 and beyond. For Wisconsin GOP strategist Bill McCoshen and Ben Wikler, the Chair of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin, Wisconsin's stakes and current climate are crystal clear.Bill McCoshen
"We want to connect with, reconnect with suburban voters. In particular, we lost some suburban voters in 2020 and again in 2022. With the right nominee, I think we can capture those folks back," says McCoshen.
One way to do that, he says, is with GOP focus on Milwaukee, specifically the recent GOP debate and the Republican National Convention next August. "I was in support of the Democratic National Convention being here a couple of years ago, it didn't quite work out the way they had planned because of COVID," says McCoshen. "But the [Republican] national convention here for the first time ever next summer, I think that'll draw tremendous attention to the state of Wisconsin, it will help the GOP nominee introduce themselves and try and close that gap with Democrats, at least on a statewide level, and it probably will be beneficial to our US Senate candidate, whoever that ultimately ends up being."
McCoshen also says Republicans need to present a positive message to voters. "The more we demean people and are taking after them on a personal basis that turns voters off," he says. "Doesn't matter if they're in the suburbs or in urban areas or rural areas. At the end of the day, people want somebody that they can look up to, that has a positive vision for the for the country. They're tired of all the toxicity in politics, whether it's from Democrats or Republicans. Most voters are just worn out by that."
McCoshen says some social and education issues have trended towards Republicans over the last two cycles. "Which has been, I think, a good thing for us. I think the Dobbs decision [overturning Roe v. Wade] probably hurt Republicans, Daniel Kelly in the Supreme Court race, it may have hurt Tim Michaels in the gubernatorial race last year as well."
McCoshen notes that the abortion decision pushback didn't hurt Ron Johnson, as he was able to get reelected in 2022. "But at the end of the day incumbents did exceptionally well nationwide," says McCoshen.
McCoshen says if a Republican presidential candidate presents a positive vision, not only in the primary but definitely in the general against Joe Biden next year, they're "going to do just fine in Wisconsin."
What if Donald Trump wins the nomination? McCoshen says that's problematic, even though he's voted for him twice. "I don't think he sells well in the suburbs, I don't think he's added to his coalition," says McCoshen. "And remember, he lost in 2020. He doesn't believe he lost in the state of Wisconsin. But that election was reviewed by the Legislative Audit Bureau, which is nonpartisan. And the right-leaning Wisconsin Institute also reviewed it for Law and Liberty, and neither found any widespread fraud."
McCoshen says, "First and foremost, Republicans need to accept the results of the past election and then start talking about 'how do we bring people to our side in the next election?' That's what this is about. Elections are about the future, not the past."
He says the GOP needs to be focusing on the economy.Ben Wikler
Wikler says the core political fact of the state of Wisconsin is that "It is almost a perfect toss-up. That's the starting line. Even when there's a bazillion things going on that you think must fundamentally reshape the political landscape, both sides start at about 48%."
"It becomes a question of turnout on each side, and of persuasion of a handful of incredibly powerful people in the middle, or people who are conflicted," he explains.
Wikler notes that Wisconsin is even a state with ticket splitters. "There were about four and a half percent of Wisconsinites voting for Ron Johnson and Tony Evers at the same time in 2022, and in 2018, one in 10 Wisconsin voters voted for Tammy Baldwin and Scott Walker at the same time."
"The only way to win in Wisconsin is to try to do everything," says Wikler. "That means organizing in suburbs that are moving in democratic directions and in rural areas to prevent them from shifting to the right, or even trying to gain a point or two here or there can make a huge difference statewide" says Wikler. He says Democrats will also be focusing on bigger cities and population areas as well.
Like McCoshen, Wikler notes that the issue of abortion is mobilizing Democrats. "People want to make those decisions for themselves. They don't want politicians telling them what to do. And there's a message around freedom that connects to reproductive freedom and to democracy and other core elements of freedom that Democrats are able to make in this election."
But when it comes to making inroads into conservative demographics, Wikler says the uphill battle is misinformation. "And I think as Democrats, we have to constantly understand that there's just a fundamentally different idea about what's happening in the world that a significant part of the electorate is living in. And that in turn means you have to find messengers that are credible, and can cut through the noise."
He says it really has to be people in their own communities, people that they know from Little League or from church or from things that are not political. "It has to be a human connection based on values, rather than starting with a shared sense that, 'oh, we must have read the same news articles,' because it's just not going to be the case," he says.
