North Avenue, a 15-mile corridor that stretches from Milwaukee to Waukesha County, cuts through just about every major voting bloc the major political parties are courting to win the presidential election in Wisconsin.
Democratic political strategist Thad Nation says North Avenue is a key thoroughfare that could hold the answer to who wins for president. WUWM spoke with Nation and Republican former Governor Scott Walker about its political importance this election year.
Both Nation and Walker have connections to North Avenue. Nation’s office is located on North Avenue. Walker used to live in and represent Wauwatosa, one of the communities on North Avenue, when he served in the state Legislature.
What makes North Avenue important for both Republicans and Democrats?
Scott Walker: “I mean, [North Avenue is] a great connector. You’re connecting to very different demographics, very different economics, very different politics. Politically, it's one of those areas, one of those key corridors that connects Lake Michigan all the way out to the Waukesha suburbs and everywhere in between … you go from east to west or west to east and the politics shift, and it's fairly reflective, I think, in many ways, of the political spectrum that you have in the state of Wisconsin.”
Thad Nation: “As goes North Avenue, so goes Wisconsin … Do [Democrats] have high African American turnout? Does that turnout look like it has in the past, which has been overwhelmingly Democratic? How high of a margin can we get in places like Wauwatosa along North Avenue? And then how are we doing in the outer suburban ring [Waukesha County]? How do Democrats do in Brookfield? How do they do in Pewaukee?"
Nation says he’s also looking to see if Milwaukee’s east side continues to turn out in high numbers for Democrats and to how well his party can cut into Republican margins in places like Waukesha County.
Nation add Democrats are going to watch each one of those neighborhoods, each one of those demographic districts along North Avenue. "If [our voter turnout and persuasion effort is] working there, it's going to be working in cities, across suburbs, across the entire state."
Can you lay out the political landscape of North Avenue?
Nation: “On North Avenue, you really see the totality of who votes, especially in the Democratic primaries, but also in the general election. You start all the way at Lake Michigan on the east side of Milwaukee, which has some of the highest turnout neighborhoods in the entire state. These are dedicated voters that always, always, always go to the polls.
And then as you move west on North Avenue, you go from some of the richest areas of the entire region to some of the poorest areas of the entire region. North Avenue borders 53206, one of the poorest, if not the poorest ZIP codes in the entire state of Wisconsin, a concentration of African American voters that is critical in any statewide race.” Nation says it’s critical for Democrats to reverse the African American drop off in voting that occurred in 2016 and 2020.
“Then you start to get to Tosa, which not too long ago was a Republican city. Twenty years ago, Scott Walker was a state representative from Tosa and now it's unrecognizable from a political standpoint where it's well over 60, probably approaching 70% Democratic.”
Nation says this trend first started in the western part of the City of Milwaukee and then through all of Wauwatosa. “And then we see it jump the line as North Avenue continues going into Waukesha County, which you know is the, you know, heart of the Republican Party and the state of Wisconsin.”
“Waukesha County produces the third-largest number of Democratic votes of any county in the state behind Milwaukee County and Dane County. There’s so many people, even when you are getting 34% [of the vote in a given race], that still is the third largest number of Democratic votes. But now you know in the last couple cycles, we're getting 43, 44, 45% of the vote in Waukesha County [in statewide elections], which is just dramatically changing how statewide races are run because what used to be the red wall of the WOW County states has been crumbling.”
Walker: "I think [Nation’s description is] a pretty accurate description [of North Avenue’s political importance] just because you got such a high population base in southeastern Wisconsin, but particularly along this corridor. And, so, for a Republican to do well, they've got to do well in the suburbs on the far west end of North Ave. They've got to stay within reasonable amounts within the Milwaukee County suburbs and then not get blown away in the City of Milwaukee. Part of that is you've got the east side, which is very much like Madison, solidly blue, not just blue, but Bernie Sanders-level liberal.”
“One of the key factors being not just turnout in the City of Milwaukee, but what sort of an impact does the economy and education issues have on those voters? And could a Republican, be that running for president or U.S. Senate, make any inroads to at least shave a little bit [off the margins in the city of Milwaukee]?They're not realistically going to get anywhere close to a majority, but if you can shave the margins down a little bit that could have a tremendous impact on the overall state result.”
What do Republicans and Democrats need to focus on?
Walker: “I think the key is don't take the bait. Meaning don't talk about anything except with the number one issue is … talking about high prices and not just [about] the economy in general, but about high prices. That to me is the most compelling argument.”
“To me, if that's the argument, if that's the point, I think you not only see the numbers in the far west end going into Waukesha County going up, I think you start to see even some independent voters throughout that corridor start to think twice about who they're going to vote for.”
Nation: “To win these voters [in the neighborhoods along North Avenue], Democrats need to show up in each of these neighborhoods and listen to the distinct concerns of their communities while also finding the common ground on issues that unite us like community investments, economic growth and individual freedoms.”
Why is Waukesha County key for Republicans?
Walker: "Population-wise, Waukesha is the largest county where Republicans are winning, in contrast with the rural areas, which are solidly pro-Trump, but tend to have fewer voters and be more geographically spread out.
“Waukesha is not only a large county in its own right, but it's one where historically Republicans have played well. The key is just trying to push those margins up as high as possible. So, it's not only taking on existing voters, but there are a lot of efforts to identify and register new voters, figuring that for every 10 voters in Waukesha County, if you pick six or seven of them, [they] vote Republican. That helps drive up those margins.”
Nation: Nation says that Democrats have seen gains along North Avenue in recent years, especially in the suburbs, which are becoming more diverse and include people with higher incomes and levels of education, who have been trending towards Democrats.
So for Republicans to improve their margins along North Avenue voting blocs, Nation says, "you'd have to start with organizing in Waukesha County. What you've seen is that the easiest place for gains are people that you recently lost, and so the change in voting patterns, really starting in 2016 that continued to today, the fall-off of the outer suburban voter, especially women, that you would have to start on the western end of North Avenue and go east, thinking that you have opportunity to pick up in Pewaukee, to get voters back in Brookfield and then also going into even western Wauwatosa, trying to continue to grab voters who traditionally were your voters, who have recently moved away from voting for you, and trying to get those folks back.”
