With the Trump administration staving off some of the most painful impacts of the government shutdown, and a federal court ruling pausing layoffs for thousands of federal workers, the sense of urgency on Capitol Hill for a way out of the stalemate may be gone — at least for right now.
In past shutdowns, Congress passed legislation to cover paychecks for the military, while headlines about things like closed national parks and shuttered agencies unable to provide services turned up the heat on both parties.
With this shutdown, the dynamic is different. Day after day, top congressional leaders hold dueling press conferences, but there are no serious negotiations and the House hasn't voted in weeks. Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., says he has no plans for the chamber to return until Senate Democrats break their opposition to a stopgap bill passed by the House to fund federal agencies through November 21.
After a 10th Senate vote to fund the government failed to advance on Thursday, Sen. Peter Welch, D-Vt, said efforts to end the shutdown were "nowhere." The Senate wrapped up business and went home, ensuring the shutdown will stretch into a fourth week.
One reason for the shift is that Congress has been sidelined from any effort to deal with the fallout as the Trump administration takes the lead.
On Tuesday, the White House Office of Management and Budget said in a post on social media that it was "making every preparation to batten down the hatches and ride out the Democrats' intransigence."
The administration's efforts have taken several forms. The Pentagon shifted money around to cover the Oct. 15 paychecks of servicemembers. The administration tapped $300 million in tariff revenue to keep a nutrition program for low-income women and children operational. And on Thursday, it said it would ensure that 70,000 law enforcement officers across the Department of Homeland Security — including at TSA and ICE — would be paid "for all hours worked during the shutdown period."
OMB did not respond to a request for comment about additional plans to cover pay for law enforcement or other federal workers, or what kind of additional layoffs might be announced. President Trump has said "Democrat programs" would be cut and face permanent layoffs or closures, but no details have been released yet.
Predicting tough days ahead
Democrats broadly argue that the administration's moves are illegal, and that there's bipartisan support for bills to cover the costs of pay for soldiers and aid for low-income women and children.
And while the administration's efforts may have delayed some pain from the shutdown for targeted programs and agencies, Democrats say the moves are also prolonging the impasse by removing pressure points that served to push the parties to negotiate in the past.
The approach "may or may not take some pressure off," according to Welch, but he said it's not sustainable.
Earlier this week House GOP Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn., praised the president for ensuring soldiers did not miss their most recent paycheck. But more widespread impacts "are just getting started," he warned.
"Airports will be flooded with flight cancellations and delays amid the busiest time to travel all year, and the list goes on and on," Emmer said.
Democrats are using their only point of leverage in the minority — denying the GOP enough votes to advance the stopgap funding bill passed by the House — as a way to force a debate about expiring health care subsidies. They believe the public is increasingly understanding that significant premium spikes are on the horizon if Congress doesn't act, and that could force the GOP to the table.
Rep. James Walkinshaw, D-Va., is among those who believe pressure on the GOP may soon grow. Walkinshaw represents a suburban district outside of Washington with a large number of federal workers.
He says there is currently no legal mechanism to pay air traffic controllers, or a way to address what he described as the unpredictable markets facing farmers due to President Trump's tariff policies.
"Every day that the shutdown continues, it's harder for the administration to try to play whack -a-mole and mitigate impacts."
November 1 could be a key date
November 1 is the beginning of open enrollment for people getting coverage through the Affordable Care Act. Most states will send notices laying out the cost of coverage without federal subsidies, and lawmakers on both sides openly admit the shutdown could extend for weeks. Democrats believe that could act as a mechanism to change things on Capitol Hill.
"What's so simple at the heart of this is should people who have health care in 2025 that's helped by the tax credits have access to that health care in 2026?" Welch said in an interview. He said that in Vermont notices started going out on October 15, with some families facing increases of $25,000.
"This is all about all our families, it's not a red state, blue state deal, or who you voted for," according to Welch.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., said he's happy to sit down with Democrats, but he has stressed that any health care deal "happens after they open up the government." Thune says he has offered Democrats a vote on a proposal to address health care subsidies, but he cannot guarantee an outcome.
Referring to Senate Democrats, Thune said, "these are not people who want to get things done. These are people who want to fight Trump and appease all the people who are coming into town this weekend," he told reporters, referring to a "No Kings" rally sponsored by progressive activists groups opposing the Trump administration's policies.
Democrats see Trump as the only person who can change the current dynamic. Many cite his love of a "deal" and the fact that voters in red states who backed him rely on the tax credits more than those in blue states.
"As soon as he gets engaged this thing can resolve within a day or two," Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., told reporters on Thursday.
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