It may be hard to believe, but Wisconsin has an election coming up — and we're not talking about the November presidential election. In less than a month, Wisconsinites will head to the polls to vote in the partisan primary for a variety of elected officials, including those in the State Legislature. This will be the first election under the new voting district. John Johnson is a research fellow at Marquette Law School's Lubar Center, and he has been paying close attention to how the selection could impact politics in Wisconsin.
As Johnson details, 46 out of 99 Wisconsin Assembly Districts will have contested primaries, with 21 being Democratic and 25 being Republican. That's a notable increase from the 31 districts from 2022 and a total of 780,000 more Wisconsin residents living in contested districts compared to the previous election cycle. In comparison, Johnson says that's, "A little over a million more [people] who will have the opportunity to vote in a competitive primary now than four years ago."
Which primary races is Johnson paying close attention to?
Johnson finds Wisconsin Assembly District 19 particularly interesting, which stretches from the upper east side of Milwaukee down the lake through downtown and to the north end of Bayview.
Johnson explains, "It's currently represented by Ryan Clancy, who's one of the most left wing members of the Democratic Party in the State Assembly. He's actually a member of the Democratic Socialists of America ... and Clancy has drawn a Democratic primary challenger, Jared Anderson, who's a more moderate Democrat. I doubt he would describe himself as a moderate, but certainly not as left wing as Clancy."
Anderson has gained endorsements from prominent Democrats, including the mayor. "So, that's going to be such an interesting primary to watch because it's a really democratic leaning district," Johnson says."So in general elections, you don't learn much about the district because they're mostly Democrats, and they vote in a similar way from one race to another."
He continues, "This will be an opportunity for those internal differences within that party supporting coalition to reveal themselves."
Among the contested districts, there are a number of races Johnson is also paying close attention to, including Assembly Districts 11, 12, 18, 24, 61 and 84.
Assembly District 11 & Assembly District 12
"There's a set of open seats in Milwaukee. The 12th and 11th districts on the north side of the city are both open. Dora Drake and Lakeisha Myers are running to replace [Sen.] Lena Taylor in the state Senate. And so several candidates have declared candidacies in the Democratic primary," Johnson says.
Assembly District 18
Johnson says, "Near west and sort of near north sides of the city, stretching into Wauwatosa — that longtime incumbent Evan Goyke has left the Assembly to become the city attorney for Milwaukee. There are at least two Democrats running there."
Assembly District 24
This district mostly covers Menomonee Falls, Germantown in Washington County. "The incumbent Assembly member Janel Brandtjen is running for reelection. She's one of the furthest right members of the State Assembly, [and] has been closely connected to a lot of the election denier activity following the 2020 presidential election," Johnson explains. "She's drawn a challenger, Dan Knodl, also a long time State Legislator. Knodl is an ally of State Republican Legislative leadership, no one would call him a moderate. I don't think, but he's certainly not as extreme as branch. In a similar way they will give us an opportunity to see the relative strength of more mainstream and less mainstream Republicans in the Milwaukee suburbs."
We will also see "A competitive Republican primary in the 61st district, which covers Hales Corners, Greendale and a lot of Greenfield," Johnson explains. "Bob Donovan, the former Milwaukee Alderman candidate for mayor and now member of the State Assembly, is running there. He's essentially the incumbent, even though the number has changed because a lot of that district is the the district that he previously represented ... He's running against LuAnn Bird, who is I believe the sole Democratic candidate on the ballot who he ran against last time."
What about the State Senate?
Johnson says chances are low for Democrats to take a majority of the state Senate. "No realistic chance because only half the seats are up in a given year. But if they do well this year, they'll set themselves up to be in a good position to potentially take the majority in 2026, when the other set of seats come up for election and the seat that is most competitive."
With so many districts being contested, it's more than likely that the Wisconsin Assembly will look different once everything is settled. Johnson predicts around ten more Democrats, which will impact the current supermajority that state Republicans currently have.
Johnson says, "I think it's possible that Republicans remain in power in the State Assembly, but with a much, much smaller majority, probably the most immediately significant thing that will change is that Republicans will no longer have a supermajority in the State Senate."
Editor's Note: The number of competitive districts has been updated to reflect new research from Johnson. In the interview, Johnson says there are 2 members of the Wisconsin Legislative Socialist Caucus, but there are currently 3 members.
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