Wisconsin voters are key in this year’s presidential election. So, how are voters feeling after all the political events of recent weeks? Marquette University Law School asked that question in its most recent poll, which was released Wednesday.
You couldn’t capture this political moment better than Derek Mosley, director of Marquette Law School’s Lubar Center for Public Policy Research and Civic Education. “Not much has happened since we last met,” says Mosley, to laughter from the audience. “Other than a debate, an assassination attempt, the Republican National Convention here in Milwaukee, the announcement of Sen. J.D. Vance as the vice president candidate for the Republican Party.”
And, of course, President Joe Biden announced that he was not seeking reelection. “We've had him also endorse Vice President Kamala Harris. We've seen her garner the Democratic nomination by virtual vote, and we learned that she has picked her vice president candidate in Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz. So other than that, nothing's happened,” Mosley says.
And after all that professor Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Poll, says the presidential race in Wisconsin seems to be “right on a knife’s edge.”
“You’ll be shocked to learn it looks close,” says Franklin.
The Marquette Poll was conducted from July 24 to August 1. The first poll since Harris entered the race. It has a margin of error of about 5 points. Forty-nine percent of registered voters in Wisconsin said they would choose Harris and 50% supported Trump. In Marquette’s survey of national voters, Harris has a 4-point advantage, which is bigger, but still within the margin of error.
Franklin says there’s been a major enthusiasm bump for the Democrats. “They were not thrilled with Biden before the debate, became far less so after the debate. Now with a new candidate, Democratic enthusiasm has surged more than anything else has changed, to virtually match Republican enthusiasm. That puts us back in a real toss up battle here, whereas it had looked like the race was slipping away from Democrats while Biden was still in the race,” he says.
Franklin says Democrats they’ve polled in Wisconsin report a 20-point increase in enthusiasm. He says this all started a year and a half ago when Joe Biden announced his reelection run. “We saw people supporting him and keeping it a race that was very close but doing it very unenthusiastically,” says Franklin. “Then the debate, then the collapse of his support, was really a low point. I think Democrats were very relieved not to have Biden as their candidate, and they quickly embraced Harris, whether they had strong opinions about her before, as an alternative and as a second chance at this election.”
Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz was chosen as the Democratic nominee for vice president after the poll was completed. Republican vice presidential nominee J.D. Vance is seen favorably by Republicans but unfavorably by independents and especially Democrats.
When it comes to issues influencing peoples’ votes, the economy still reigns supreme in Wisconsin. It’s the top issue for 38% of Wisconsin voters. “What we see in this poll, though, is that abortion is the second biggest issue, very closely followed by immigration by just one point difference. Democrats have all along said abortion is the most important issue to them. Republicans have said the economy and then immigration are most important. But there does seem to be a little bit of a shift overall to saying abortion is more important.”
Only 3% of registered voters in Wisconsin polled this past month say the Israel-Hamas war is their most important issue. Currently, registered voters in Wisconsin see Trump as having an advantage on issues of immigration and the border, the Israel Hamas War and the economy. At the same time, the poll found that voters see Harris as having an advantage in dealing with Medicare and Social Security, ensuring fair and accurate elections, health care, and abortion policy.
But don’t ask Franklin how this neck-and-neck polling will all play out in November. “You know that quarter I offered to flip?” he says. “That’s as close as I come to the crystal ball these days.”
