While most eyes are on the presidential election in Wisconsin, there are many other smaller races that are getting attention.
Earlier this year, the Wisconsin Supreme Court ordered new legislative maps be drawn, putting an end to one of the worst gerrymandered maps in the U.S. and evening the playing field for Democratic and Republican politicians. On Nov. 5, every Wisconsin Assembly district is up for election, while half of the State Senate is facing election.
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John Johnson is a research fellow at Marquette University's Lubar Center, who has been analyzing the most competitive races in Wisconsin. Although some of these districts may substantially favor Republican or Democratic candidates, Johnson says that these smaller races are more susceptible to big swings.
He explains, "The races are small enough that more of the voters are making their opinion based on an actual experience they’ve had with that candidate, so you do see a bit of ticket splitting."
In the Milwaukee-area, there are just two Assembly races on Johnson's radar, that could swing either Republican or Democrat.
Assembly District 21
This district encompasses Oak Creek into the southern part of Milwaukee, pairing Republican incumbent Jessie Rodriguez against political operative David Marsteller Jr. The district leans Democratic.
Assembly District 61
This district includes southwestern Milwaukee suburbs, like Greendale and Hales Corners. Republican Bob Donovan is the incumbent, in a rematch race against LuAnn Bird, executive director of the League of Women Voters. The district leans Republican by a narrow margin.
Senate District 8
In the Milwaukee area, the most competitive Wisconsin Senate race is in the north shore suburbs, Menomonee Falls, and Germantown. Senate District 8 has Republican Sen. Duey Stroebel running against Democrat Jodi Habush Sinykin. The district has a slight Republican lean.
Races outside of Milwaukee
Outside of Milwaukee, Johnson says there are a variety of Assembly districts he'll be watching, including some that could foreshadow larger trends in the election.
"There's the Sheboygan district [District 26], there's one around Neenah and Menasha [District 53], there's a couple in the Green Bay suburbs that are just razor-thin between the two of them [Districts 88 and 89]. Wausau is going to be competitive [District 85], there's a couple seats in the Eau Claire area [Districts 91 and 92], theres one in the St. Paul suburbs [District 30]. If Democrats pick up that one because it does lean Republican, that'll be a really good night for them... And then the LaCrosse area has a competitive seat as well, the 94th District," says Johnson.
Although all of Wisconsin's members in the U.S. Congress are also up for election, Johnson cited only one race he thinks is competitive.
Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District
"The 3rd District in Southwestern Wisconsin has gotten a lot of spending. This was held by Democrats for a long time, Ron Kind retired, he was replaced by Derrick Van Orden who won that seat by a closer margin in 2022 than expected," says Johnson.
Van Orden, the Republican incumbent, is running against Rebecca Cooke, a small-business owner and member of the Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation.
As for the election results, Johnson expects to be waiting until the wee hours of the morning on Wednesday to learn the results.
He explains, "I think the race will be so close for president and maybe Senate in Wisconsin that we’ll likely need to wait until all of the city of Milwaukee ballots are in to know who the winner will be so I expect that to happen sometime very early Wednesday morning."
