On this week's Capitol Notes, we discuss developments in the race for Wisconsin governor ahead of a Democratic primary with a crowded field, along with a visit from Vice President JD Vance and the latest in immigration enforcement and litigation in the state.
Here's an excerpt of the conversation between WUWM's Maayan Silver and JR Ross, editor of WisPolitics.com.
This interview has been edited for length and clarity.
Maayan Silver: Some big news from last week, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley ended his campaign for governor, saying it became clear that he won't be the Democratic nominee. Can you talk more about this?
JR Ross: Well, look, for campaigns in general, you're kind of asking two main questions, at the very core. One, do I have a path to victory? And two, do we have the money to get there? And it became clear to Crowley that the answer was no.
We will see campaign finance reports filed this week that will shed new light on what they've been raising the last six months. The kind of assumption is that Crowley's not going to be among the top fundraisers in that field. If he were, maybe he'd still be in the race. But if you don't have the resources, the path, what's the point?
And obviously, he'll still be on the ballot. There's still the chance to vote for him. But by getting out now, it's a realization of, 'Hey, there's not a path here. I see somebody I think is better in Sara Rodriguez. I'm going to get behind her.' But also, there is a benefit to that for Crowley, in that he's building a bridge, a rapport with Rodriguez, that might help him down the road. You know, because people remember that when you get out of a race and endorse them, they remember that you backed them in something like this.
Crowley endorsed Lieutenant Governor Sara Rodriguez. Former candidate Missy Hughes also endorsed her. CBS 58 reporter A.J. Bayatpour asked Crowley whether he dropped out so that establishment Democrats could coalesce support around Rodriguez and away from democratic socialist, Francesca Hong. He said 'no.' What do you think about that?
Well, there's this kind of interesting conspiracy theory that there's some kind of "establishment," like this smoke-filled room of power brokers saying 'you can run' and 'you can't.' That's not how it happens.
Like I said before, campaigns know they've got to figure out what's my path to victory, and do I have the money to get there. And if they don't — why are you still in the race? That becomes the question. If you can't communicate to voters, if you don't have a shot to win, what are you doing? And if you think there's somebody who's better positioned to win than yourself, it's an easy decision for some people to make.
Now, we don't see things like the Democratic Governors Association, they're not endorsing anybody in the race. Gov. Evers is not endorsing anyone. Tammy Baldwin is not endorses anybody. So where is this quote, unquote "establishment" that's forcing people out? Are there operatives I've talked to who think that Francesca Hong is not as strong a candidate as others? Yeah, absolutely. But there's no group of people in some kind of back room or hatching deals that force you out of the way. That's not what's happening. Missy Hughes and David Crowley realized, 'Hey, I don't have a path. I think Sara's our best bet,' and that's what they did.
Now, there's an argument made that Francesca Hong might bring out new voters that Democrats haven't been able to tap into before. But there is definitely a concern among operatives I talked to that Francesca Hong would make winning the governor's office more difficult, if not possibly even out of reach if she's the nominee because of various stances that she's taken and a fear that it could cause a down-ballot issue if national groups don't invest in Wisconsin. But again, as far as like something like the quote unquote "establishment," like forcing people out, that's not what's going on here, as far as I can tell.
The primary for governor is coming up in about a month. There's, as you mentioned, a crowded group of Democrats still. What else do we need to know about developments in that race?
So, we're gonna get some really key data points in the coming days and weeks. Those finance reports will tell us who's got the money to communicate to voters ahead of the primary. We're gonna have a Marquette Law School poll July 22. That'll give us an idea of where the contenders are. We're going to have a debate hosted by WISN-TV and kind of co-promoted by us at WisPolitics July 28. Early voting begins July 28, and the primary August 11. So we're going to see a number of things happen rapid-fire.
One of the big questions hanging out there is, will anybody else leave the race? That's a question for some of the people who have to figure out after you see the money that comes in and these polls, where are they at? Do they have a path to victory that could shape things? And what outside money is going to keep coming in to help or hurt contenders?
We've seen Sara Rodriguez spend more than $900,000. There's a group backing Mandela Barnes that's now up on the air, doing digital stuff that's going to go on air on Madison TV. The campaigns themselves have begun media buys. Rodriguez announced a $1 million one. Kelda Roys $500,000. Mandela Barnes announced a six-figure buy. Joel Brennan's been on the air. He's currently not up, last time I checked. So, they're communicating, but who has the resources to communicate to voters?
And two, who's going get that outside help? That's very important. Francesca Hong has had an impressive run with creating excitement among certain people in the base, but to really reach primary voters, you have to be able to communicate. You need resources to do that. Does she have those resources to effectively communicate to enough primary voters to win that race August 11? That's a big question for her.
