Wisconsin has a primary election on Aug. 11 and a general election Nov. 3. On the ballot: Wisconsin governor, lieutenant governor, secretary of state, state treasurer, U.S. Congress and state legislative races.
Why are the 2026 midterms politically consequential in Wisconsin? Here's what to know.
1. A key question to answer: What's the political environment in late fall?
How is Trump polling in November? What are gas prices like? Is there still a war in Iran?
Those are key questions, says JR Ross, editor of WisPolitics.com. He says you can't escape how much the president impacts the midterm political environment and drives turnout on both sides of the aisle. And as far as issues? It's all about affordability.
"There's a big question about whether voters will feel better about the economy by late summer, early fall or not. And if they don't —probably bad for Republicans," says Ross. "If they do — probably better for Republicans, because the party in power in the White House typically struggles in midterm elections."
2. Wisconsin is always a critical state to watch nationally
One big race in 2026 is the race for Wisconsin governor. Whether a Democrat or a Republican wins could significantly influence fundraising and infrastructure in the state for the 2028 presidential election. "Does that person have an infrastructure? Is the state party strong behind that person to help a presidential nominee in 2028?" says Ross.
If there's a trifecta, meaning one party wins the state Senate, state Assembly and governor’s office, Ross says the trifecta could pass different laws about election regulations that could help or hurt somebody. "There are all kinds of questions like that,” he says.
3. These elections could lead Wisconsin in a new direction.
Republicans have controlled the Wisconsin Legislature since 2011, and for part of that time, they also held the governor's office. That allowed them to push through major policy changes like Act 10, voter ID laws, and laws restricting access to abortion.
If Democrats are able to win a trifecta in the governor’s office and both chambers of the Legislature, they could further long-desired Democratic goals like legalization of marijuana, paid family leave and potentially even new Congressional district maps ahead of the 2028 election, which could also affect the balance in the U.S. House of Representatives.
4. Gov. Evers wraps up his time in office
Democratic Gov. Tony Evers is not running again, creating an open field in the race.
Evers’ legacy will involve, in large part, his emphasis on public education. That includes his 400-year-veto, where he used his partial veto power to lock in an increase in school revenue limits. He also extensively used his gubernatorial veto to block the GOP-controlled Legislature’s agenda.
"He's played goalie for seven-plus years against Republicans," says Ross, who notes that Evers shot down GOP proposals on everything from election law to abortion to transgender rights. Ross also says that, for the most part, people have approved of the job that he's done as governor. "Look at the Marquette Poll. His job approval rating was almost always 50% or higher."
Ross says people see Evers as “kind of a grandfatherly figure," but says that can be his weakness at times. "Because he's not that political. He doesn't know how to work the Legislature to get them to do what he wants. He uses things like the State of the State address as a bully pulpit where he says [the GOP-led Legislature] is doing bad things and encourages people to call their legislator. But that's not how you get people to move in politics."
5. There's a Democratic primary for governor with a lot of candidates
In the Aug. 11 primary, voters will narrow down the field of candidates for governor.
On the Democratic side, there are seven contenders: former lieutenant governor Mandela Barnes, former Department of Administration secretary Joel Brennan, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, state legislator Francesca Hong of Madison, former CEO of the Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation Missy Hughes, current Lieutenant Governor Sara Rodriguez and state legislator Kelda Roys of Madison.
READ: Here’s who is running for Wisconsin governor in 2026
Republicans have coalesced around U.S. Representative Tom Tiffany. He’s a congressman for the 7th district (northern-central Wisconsin — Minoqua). President Donald Trump has endorsed Tiffany. But Ross notes that didn’t help then-GOP candidate Tim Michels in his bid for governor in 2022. Also, he notes there are headwinds for Republicans nationally, including President Trump’s low approval numbers.
At the same time, Ross says banding around one candidate could give Republicans a head start in the campaign.
“Democrats, they don't know who their nominee is going to be,” says Ross. “They don't even know if that nominee is gonna be bruised and battered after the primary. Is it gonna get ugly? How much money will that nominee have? So even though there are advantages for Democrats nationally with the environment, if a candidate emerges from that primary who has got electability problems, that helps Tiffany.”
6. Some of Wisconsin's Congressional seats are swing-y.
Control over Congress will be hard-fought in 2026. There are currently slim margins in the U.S. House of Representatives. Two hundred eighteen seats are needed for a majority, and there are currently 217 Republicans, 212 Democrats, one independent and five vacancies. All 435 seats are up for grabs in the midterms.
In Wisconsin, there are currently six Republicans and two Democrats in the state’s eight congressional seats. The race that’s most considered a toss-up is Derrick Van Orden’s seat in District 3 – it covers most of the Driftless Area, in southwestern and western Wisconsin. He’s being challenged by former nonprofit leader Rebecca Cooke and former Eau Claire City Council President Emily Berge, both Democrats. The primary election will determine who faces Van Orden in November.
Bryan Steil is seeking re-election in southeastern Wisconsin’s District 1 and is considered a likely Republican seat by Sabatos Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia. There will be a Democratic primary in that race between Peter Burgelis, Lorenzo Santos, Mitchell Berman and Miguel Aranda.
There are likely not going to be new Congressional maps in Wisconsin ahead of the November general election, according to JR Ross, editor of WisPolitics.com.
7. It’s just the second election under Wisconsin's new state Legislative maps
Legislative district lines, which determine a state representative or state senator's constituency, are drawn every 10 years during a new Census. In 2010, after GOP Governor Scott Walker was elected, Republicans used a secretive, partisan process to draw district maps. That led to Republicans overperforming in the Wisconsin Assembly.
From 2011 to 2018, Republicans instituted many conservative policies in Wisconsin, such as Act 10, which curtailed the rights of most state employees to unionize, and a strict voter ID law. As mentioned above, Democratic Governor Tony Evers blocked much of the GOP-led Legislature’s agenda for the past eight years.
After the 2020 Census came out, there Democrats brought lawsuits against the maps that heavily favored Republicans.
The state Supreme Court threw out those Republican-drawn maps in 2023. After that, the Legislature passed maps drawn by Evers, instead of taking up maps that could be drawn by the liberal-controlled state Supreme Court. The first election using those maps was in 2024. Democrats made some gains in the Legislature, picking up 14 seats in both the Assembly and the Senate, but Republican still maintained control.
Ross says the new maps can be traced back to Evers’ win in 2018. “That prevented Republicans from having control to draw a new map after the 2020 Census. Evers [also] fundraised for the Democratic Party. It helped raise money for those Supreme Court races [in 2023, 2025 and 2026 that Democrat-backed candidates won].”
If Wisconsin had a Republican-controlled Legislature and governor's office, or a conservative majority on the Supreme Court, says Ross, the state wouldn't have the maps it has right now. “That's a big change in Wisconsin,” he says. “It's in large part to do with the success of Evers and Democrats in raising money.”
8. Can Democrats make further gains in the Legislature? A shot to flip the state Senate
There are 33 Wisconsin state senators, and Republicans currently have a 18-15 majority in the Senate. According to Ross, there are four seats at play — one currently held by a Democrat and three by Republicans. If Democrats win any three of those, they get to 17 votes — a majority. According to Ross, in all four of those seats Kamala Harris got more votes than Donald Trump in 2024. They are districts 5 (Brookfield), 17 (Spring Green), 21 (Racine) and 31 (Eau Claire).
9. There's a more uphill climb for Democrats to take control of the Wisconsin Assembly
Currently, Republicans hold the Assembly with 54 seats to the Democrats’ 45. For Democrats to gain a majority, they would have to sweep almost all of the contested seats and hold on to a few they won by the skin of their teeth in 2024, says Ross. "So, it’s tougher, but there’s still an avenue for Democrats," he says.
The Republican-held swing seats include Assembly Districts 53 (Neenah-Menasha), 21 (Oak Creek), 51 (Dodgeville), 88 (De Pere), and 61 (Greenfield). “Those are your top five to watch for Republican-held seats,” says Ross.
Democrats must also defend Assembly District 94, says Ross, currently held by Democrat Steve Doyle of Onalaska. “He’s the only Democrat in a district that was won by Donald Trump in 2024,” says Ross.
The GOP-controlled “reach seats” for Democrats to try and win, says Ross, are Assembly District 88 (Weston), 30 (River Falls) and 92 (Menomonie).
“So that's really your map,” says Ross. “There aren't many other opportunities for Democrats because the way the map was drawn, there are a limited number of seats where they can be competitive beyond the true blue ones. But that's your ball game in the Assembly.”
10. A lot of Wisconsin Republicans are not running for re-election to Legislature in 2026
Robin Vos is the longest-serving Assembly Leader in Wisconsin history. He rose to speaker in 2013 and has been a key player in keeping his GOP Assembly caucus moving in the same direction. WisPolitics noted that Vos was both “a driving force behind some of the biggest conservative reforms in Wisconsin over the past two decades and a divisive figure even within his own base.”
He faced ire from Democrats who thought that he put together rigged maps in the Legislature and who chafed at his tactics, says Ross. He also faced recall efforts from Trump supporters who weren’t pleased with his backing of the results of the 2020 presidential election.
He’s not running for re-election. Depending on how the elections turn out in November, the leader-in-waiting is Republican Tyler August (Walworth), who became Assembly majority leader in 2022. That’s the number two spot in the Assembly.
In total, 14 Republican state legislators — eight Assembly members and six Senate members, representing about one-third of the Senate Republican caucus — announced they will vacate their seats. The notable GOP retirements include:
- Devin LeMahieu (R-Oostburg): The Wisconsin Senate Majority Leader Devin LeMahieu will not seek reelection.
- State Senator Van Wanggaard (R-Racine)
- State Senator Steve Nass (R-Whitewater)
- State Senator Rob Hutton (R-Brookfield)
- State Senator Jesse James (R-Thorp)
- State Senator Andre Jacque (R-De Pere)
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